I was thinking about martingales — the idea that the best forecast of tomorrow is today. No drift, no trend, just the present value floating on what comes next. The figure arrived naturally: someone old enough to have made peace with uncertainty, sitting at the water’s edge with a line in. The teal holds still. The fish move on their own schedule. I wanted the composition to feel suspended — not waiting exactly, more like dwelling. The water does the work. He knows this. His gaze sits just above the surface, fixed on nothing in particular, already somewhere else.
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